Notable Presidential Volatility and the Reasons Behind Them in History
Jason Pike | May 6, 2025
Throughout U.S. history, several presidencies have been marked by significant volatility, often stemming from economic crises, political unrest, or contentious elections. Here are some notable instances:
1. Martin Van Buren and the Panic of 1837
Shortly after taking office in 1837, Van Buren faced a severe financial crisis known as the Panic of 1837. Triggered by speculative lending practices and a collapse in land prices, the crisis led to widespread bank failures and a prolonged economic depression. Van Buren's adherence to laissez-faire policies limited federal intervention, exacerbating public discontent and diminishing his popularity.
2. Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression
Hoover's presidency (1929–1933) coincided with the onset of the Great Depression. His administration's response, perceived as inadequate, included controversial actions like the violent dispersal of the "Bonus Army"—World War I veterans demanding early bonus payments. These events, coupled with escalating economic hardship, eroded public trust and led to his defeat in the 1932 election.
3. Lyndon B. Johnson and the 1968 Election
Amidst the Vietnam War and domestic civil unrest, President Johnson chose not to seek re-election in 1968. The year was marked by significant turmoil, including the assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy, widespread protests, and a deeply divided Democratic Party. These factors contributed to Richard Nixon's election victory, signaling a major political realignment.
4. George W. Bush and the 2000 Election
The 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore resulted in a highly contested outcome, hinging on Florida's electoral votes. The uncertainty led to a nearly 5% drop in the S&P 500 and a 40% spike in market volatility. The Supreme Court's decision in Bush v. Gore ultimately resolved the dispute, but the episode highlighted vulnerabilities in the electoral process.
5. Donald Trump’s Second Term and Market Volatility
In his second term, President Trump's policies, including protectionist trade measures and proposed tariffs, contributed to significant market volatility. The S&P 500 declined about 8% in the first 100 days, and the dollar index dropped approximately 9%, marking one of the worst starts for a president since Nixon's second term. Analysts attributed the turbulence to enduring policy uncertainties.
These episodes underscore how presidential actions and broader socio-economic factors can lead to periods of heightened volatility, influencing both public sentiment and market stability.
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